15 seconds of fame

Andy Warhol once said that everyone would be famous for 15 minutes. Of course he lived in the more leisurely sixties, and if he was still alive today and coping with our ever decreasing attention spans, he would surely have rejoiced in the fact that everybody’s day in the sun would now be much briefer than he ever would have envisaged.
 
Anyway my 15 seconds have arrived. I was quoted in parliament yesterday during the budget debate, in a speech made by Mary Macleod, the newly elected MP for Brentford and Isleworth. In true deprecating accountant manner, it was not something I actively sought. I was asked by the Hounslow Chamber of Commerce to provide a suitable comment for inclusion in Ms Macleod’s speech, which I did. The rest, as Andy Warhol would no doubt say, is history. 
 
OK it may have been slightly tarnished by the fact that they got my first name wrong, but that isn’t unusual, and at least they spelt the surname correctly. Maybe the gods of fame might take pity on me and allow me another 15 seconds some other day…

Antony Doggwiler (don’t call me Andrew!)
ajd@orchardgrowth.com

UK business location – that’ll do nicely….

Hooray somebody loves us! With our World Cup hosting dreams potentially in tatters, and having finished bottom of the pile at the Eurovision Song Contest, I was beginning to think the world was falling out of love with this sceptred isle.  However, never fear, we are still viewed as the best place in Europe for overseas businesses to invest in.

Whether this will survive increasing rates of taxation, volcanic ash, a seemingly part-time national airline and the gradual migration of business eastwards is yet to be seen, but clearly the UK is still managing to maintain its position as a location of choice for inward direct investment.

A pragmatic and flexible approach, coupled with an enterprise culture that has not yet been throttled out of us by increasing legislative red tape helps.  Speaking the world’s current favourite business language doesn’t do us any harm either.  Cynics may point to the fact that our open door policy to anybody who has the cash to buy up any business that takes their fancy may also be a key factor in our attractiveness. Whatever the reason, we need to remember that it remains a competitive world out there, and this trend cannot be assumed to continue.

With trading and government deficits needing to be closed in some way, continued foreign direct investment is vital to the UK’s economic future, but we take it for granted at our peril.  Whether it is preserving the skills and qualities that we already have, or developing new ones, it is the responsibility of all us to ensure we continue to be the investment location of choice.

The Joy Of Pensions

OK, it’s not sex, though at least I have now grabbed your attention.  But can pensions ever be fun? I have to admit that the thought of a pensions dedicated event did not fill me with enthusiasm. Fair play then to Melanie Stern, and her team at Financial Director magazine, who put together a really enjoyable and informative evening at the London Stock Exchange last week.

Of course it helps if your speakers are entertaining, and in Kevin Wesbroom and Jackie Daldorph from Hewitt Associates,  Allan Course, an independent pension trustee, and Michael Johnson, author of a Centre for Policy Studies paper on changes to state, private sector and public sector pensions, Melanie had made some wise choices.

Kevin and Jackie set the scene with an amusing overview of the current pensions scene, including the election pledges of the three main parties, the key issues that nobody seems prepared to address, public sector pensions and the likely impact of NEST and NEO. Allan highlighted some of the challenges that pension fund trustees were facing in a world that wants to move away from final salary pension schemes.

Yet it was Michael who advanced the notion that the problem with pensions was the concept of pensions themselves. He strongly advocated a wider more flexible savings method that was more in tune with the uncertain times that we were now facing.

There is an argument that says that pensions are “so 20^th century”, and they are in desperate need of a rebrand for the new millennium.  Certainly the original aim of Lloyd George to provide a few years of well earned rest and recreation for 70 year olds following a lifetime’s toil does not match with today’s possibility of the retirement period lasting almost as long as the working life that has to pay for it.

The pensions model as we know it would appear to be broken. New ways of thinking are essential if we are to reach the stage where pensions will occupy our minds more than sex does with sufficient wherewithal to enjoy our twilight years. The evening spent with Financial Director magazine was a valuable step in the right direction.

Wanted – FDs with a vision

John Vincent, co-founder of Leon Restaurants  and head of Vasari Global, is frustrated by empty companies. In a recent blog in Management Today  he railed against zombie businesses that focus on share price with little or no concern for people and society.  He believes that companies need to have a sense of mission beyond the share price, or they won’t last.

I can relate to that.  There is nothing worse than a company that has no purpose other than to make money. Indeed it is clear that a business that pursues profit without any thought for the way that it does so is unlikely to be sustainable.

But hang on.  Apparently I am not supposed to think like that.  I am a finance director.  It seems I don’t get this vision thing.  I am a process guy who likes nothing better to wallow in the numbers and cut “unnecessary” costs.  That is apparently why FDs do not make good CEOs.

Balderdash.  Good FDs are good precisely because they do get this vision thing.  They can look beyond the numbers and appreciate the difference between cost and value.  They do understand how wealth is created. 

However they also know how easily it is destroyed.  Indeed there is an argument to say that some CEOs have too much vision and that a little focus on the numbers would not do them any harm at all.

The truth is that a good CEO is a good CEO regardless of his or her discipline.  They articulate the vision, support the processes, engender trust and ultimately create wealth.

Actually I do have a vision.  It is of a business that I have helped to know where it has been, know where it is going and know that it has enough fuel in the tank to get there. It may not be bright and fluffy, but it is reasonable and achievable, and has helped a number of CEO “visions” succeed.

Why did I enjoy this year’s IOD convention so much?

IOD Convention 28 April 2010

Well, it started with a very pleasant breakfast with Tim Campbell (of the Apprentice fame) who delivered a passionate and motivational speech about minding your P’s and Q’s. He went on to describe his work at “The Bright Ideas Trust” – a mentoring and business support service for 16-30 year olds NEET’s (not in employment education or training) who are seeking to start their own business. Speaking to him after his speech, I was most impressed by his self confidence and commitment to helping young people less fortunate than himself.

The formal convention proceedings commenced promptly at 10.05 with an introduction from Miles Templeman, IOD Director General, about leadership, closely followed by an esteemed list of speakers including:

• Sir Martin Sorrell – WPP Group
• Stephen Green – HSBC Bank
• Dame Kelly Holmes – Championing the Delhi Commonwealth games
• Vincent Cable, George Osborne and Lord Mandelson – Political representatives.

 The best, however in my opinion, were the personal experiences shared by the entrepreneurs such:

• Will King – Founder King of Shaves –  “Life is for living, laughing and working”;
• Emma Hanson CBE – Chairman of A4E – “I was the naughty girl at school”;
• Simon Calver – CEO LoveFilm – “Performance measures steer my ship”.

However, Tristam Mayhew, the Chief Gorilla at Go Ape, saved the best for last when he said “The best decision I made was hiring a part-time FD one day a week”.

The perfect end to a great day.

The value of “experiences”……

The truly depressing statistic that emerged from unemployment figures  released last week was that the level of unemployment for 16-24 years olds had almost reached one million. This growing number of NEETs  (Not in Education, Employment or Training) is a national tragedy in a number of ways.

For the hard pressed Generation Xer  though, struggling with pressures of family responsibility, job insecurity and collapsing pensions, the trials and tribulations of Generation Y  may seem of little concern, especially when they are constantly told it is down to them to adapt to the values of this generation rather than the other way round.

Indeed it is fashionable to claim that school and college leavers and graduates attempt to enter the world of work with little or no concept of what is required regarding skills, discipline and timeliness, and with more interest in what the job can do for them rather that what they can do in their job. There are glib suggestions that a haircut and a makeover are all that is necessary to turn things around.

All this is extremely unfair on young people. They are not stupid.  Many are very entrepreneurial in their own way. They recognise trends. They can react quickly. They often start their own businesses. They can think the unthinkable. They may suffer from lack of conventional “experience”, but the most tech savvy generation ever already have a wealth of “experiences” to draw on.

The growing NEET problem is clearly not all down to employer attitudes. Young people do need to be more aware of the challenges facing their elders. Family environments and educational establishments have to do a lot more to encourage the right sort of thinking and attitude. Initiatives such as Surrey Young Enterprise , which are excellent ways of engaging young people with business and commerce, need to be strongly supported by business and government alike.

Yes, it is not easy in a world where it seems more and more people are chasing fewer and fewer opportunities, but opportunities are often created in adversity, and finding ways to tap into the talents of an increasingly forgotten generation is surely as good a place as any to start.

AIM – Not enough liquidity, but plenty at Grocers Hall

Off to Grocers Hall  in the City for the Growth Company Awards where we sip champagne in a beautiful red velvet room adorned by paintings of well known grocers of shopping days past, including er…. Lord Carrington. I’m not sure what his connection is; perhaps like me he worked at Sainsbury’s while he was a student (though somehow I doubt it).

The Awards are sponsored by Sharemark,  promoting its leading alternative share-trading platform which allows small businesses to raise liquidity (even for businesses already quoted on another exchange). These events can become a bit indistinguishable from each other especially after plenty of liquidity of the bubbly kind and so it was good to see that Gavin Oldham, the founder and CEO of Share plc, Sharemark’s parent company, was the headline speaker to kick the evening off.

Mr Oldham always has something memorable to say, based on his many years in the City and having set up not only Share plc but also Barclays Stockbrokers. He is a fierce advocate of private shareholder rights and not afraid to point his finger at the City when he feels it appropriate, and that was what he did this evening. He had taken part in a breakfast seminar with a dozen CEOs of AIM companies and all were questioning the benefit of staying on the market; not surprising when you consider that 257 companies delisted from AIM last year.

The thrust of his talk was that too often companies are taken down the IPO route onto AIM or PLUS but that thereafter they get little support from advisers in making the most of their listing, and become “stranded”. The problem is often that too few companies focus on liquidity or get support from advisers on managing liquidity. This in turn is usually due to the IPO process almost invariably being satisfied by a placing to institutional shareholders and having too few retail shareholders on board. He suggested that City brokers should get retail brokers involved so the company has more private shareholders on its share register. These are the people who provide liquidity through frequent trading whereas institutional shareholders tend to hold their shares and not trade frequently and sometimes the shares stagnate due to minimal trading.

You can’t fault Mr Oldham’s logic but equally looking at this commercially from a City brokers point of view, it’s much easier to just talk to a few institutions and get the placing done rather than deal with tens or hundreds of private shareholders. Of course, Mr Oldham would point out that Share plc can handle this nightmare for City brokers, but this is too rational an argument; the City, despite its dynamic image, is actually quite slow at changing its ways whatever those ways are. Hence, Mr Oldham’s rallying call that this area requires a change of attitude from corporate advisers.

An excellent evening overall, and a good point made by Mr Oldham, but I was left wondering why something called the Growth Company Awards only has two of its nine awards for growth companies and the remainder for City advisers. Surely shome misthtake as they say after too much fizzy liquidity.

Business planning – up in the clouds or down to earth……?

The two major news items of the moment, Nick Clegg’s apparent triumph in the televised election debate and the volcanic cloud that is currently playing havoc with the skies have brought to mind Harold MacMillan’s alleged quote when asked what was most likely to blow a government off course.
 
The source of the ex Conservative prime minister’s comment “events dear boy, events” has never been properly substantiated, but nonetheless, it is probably haunting his would be successors now, as all their months of meticulous election planning have had to be put to one side, to deal with these two unexpected events.
 
Many businesses, not least those involved in air travel, are also having to come to terms with the impact of the Icelandic eruption, which threatens to wreak more havoc on the UK economy than the collapse of the Icelandic banking system. Whether it is key employees being stranded, or the disruption of key transport connections, or the impact on customers and suppliers, companies are having to find solutions to the problems that have emerged.
 
It is moments like this where the merits of business planning tend to be questioned. “How can you plan for this?” is a common jibe, dug up whenever somebody has the temerity to suggest that their organisation might need some sort of business plan. A lot of this stems from the corporate or government approach to planning, which in many organisations means a political exercise designed to promote or preserve the position of senior executives or civil servants.
 
The reality is that planning is not just about plotting a single course. It is about preparing for the unexpected. It is about creating a culture within which uncertainty can be recognised and dealt with. Above all it is about producing a framework within which quick decisions can be made to deal with a range of scenarios.
 
Businesses with robust planning processes will have already started to look at the risks and opportunities that the current situation presents. They will be aware of the resources that they have available to manage these, and will be working out how to deploy them to maximum advantage. In short they will be much better prepared and much more able to survive than businesses that don’t have such processes.
 
As for the politicians…..

Feeling good – for now…..

The latest business trends survey released this morning by BDO , the accountancy firm, reveals that business confidence  has reached its highest level for four years.  This pretty much fits with much of the anecdotal evidence that I have gleaned from clients and contacts over the past few months, and is a welcome antidote to the gloom and doom that has been prevalent for the last year or so.

But anybody who takes this as being the end of the recession and the beginning of a glorious sustained recovery is being a tad naïve. As the survey itself says, much of the boost in output has been down to companies deciding to re-stock after letting their stock levels run down during the recession, and that a significant, and as yet unidentified, increase in private sector investment is needed to keep any recovery on track.

Many businesses that have cut things back to the bone in response to the downturn are now having to get their stock levels back to a least a reasonable level.  Building maintenance and basic equipment upgrades can only be postponed for so long.  But like the VAT reduction and quantitative easing, these are only going to be one off boosts to economic activity.

UK economic growth is driven by public sector spending, consumer demand, business investment, and export activity.  It is the latter two that are likely to lead the way out of this recession, and given the comments above regarding investment and the fact that global demand is still not exciting enough for there to be a strong expansion of exports, the situation remains fragile.

Add to this the fact that businesses are understandably not believing any pre election pledges about what the parties intend to do, and are waiting for the reality of the post election economic situation and the actions that will be necessary to deal with that, you can understand why I am still cautious about the immediate future.

I still believe that it will be up to businesses to make their own recovery in 2010 (and maybe even 2011), and that the basics of business planning and financial management that many companies have had to revisit during the recession will play a key role in any success they hope to achieve.  There is still a long way to go.

Job Creation vs Job Preservation…again…

It is jobs stupid! As the official election campaign finally gets underway and we prepare ourselves for a month of claim and counter claim, promises and pledges, and of course the obligatory carefully staged photo opportunities, the economy is likely to come under renewed scrutiny as the political parties endeavour to persuade us that they have all the solutions.

It does not require the powers of Nostradamus to foresee that unemployment and job creation are likely to be at the forefront of the electorate’s current list of concerns. However, as touched upon in a previous blog, it remains clear that politicians still do not really understand the difference between job preservation and job creation.

Take the recent car scrappage scheme that has just ended. A great success it seems, in that it apparently saved 4,000 jobs. However this scheme appears to have had a budget of about £400million. Being an accountant, I am obviously not very good at maths, but I calculate that, on this basis, each job preserved has cost the government £100,000.

And there is no guarantee that the 4,000 jobs mentioned above will still remain in the future. As manufacturers and car retailers downgrade their sales expectations for the coming year it is hard to believe there will not be job losses in the sector. All that seems to have been achieved by the scheme is some short term job preservation.

It would have been more worthwhile to have given 4,000 SMEs approximately £100,000 each to see how they would have used the cash. Some no doubt would have squandered to the money (perhaps on a new car or two), but I would like to think that those that did use it wisely would have ended up creating more than 4,000 jobs, and, more importantly, that those jobs would have been sustainable and longer lasting. Perhaps they might even have further boosted the anticipated “green jobs bonanza”.

Anyway that’s my suggestion. The perfect combination – job creation with green credentials. The election’s already in the bag….

Antony Doggwiler
ajd@orchardgrowth.com